Marriott International expects Middle East hotel performance to worsen before improving. The company forecasts a decline in regional RevPAR for the fourth quarter, with gradual gains expected to begin next year. CEO Anthony Capuano described conditions in the region as “highly volatile,” citing ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran and attacks on Saudi Arabia from Yemen.
“We’ll benefit once we get through the first quarter from relatively easier comps,” Capuano told analysts during the Q3 earnings call. The company is currently assuming “ongoing travel disruption with some gradual improvement during the course of 2027.”
The region had shown some improvement in recent months. Middle East RevPAR fell 12% in the latest quarter, compared with a decline of more than 40% in the second quarter. This was attributed to “healthy local and regional demand,” according to Capuano. However, this progress is not expected to continue through the end of the year.
Jen Mason, Marriott’s CFO, forecasted a steeper year-over-year decline in Middle East RevPAR for the fourth quarter compared to the third. She attributed this to challenging comparisons with the fourth quarter of 2025, when major events boosted average daily rates, and recent event cancellations in Saudi Arabia. With the Middle East’s tourism peak starting in October, this decline will significantly affect the fourth-quarter results for the Europe-Middle East-Africa region.
Strong Performance in North America
In the U.S. and Canada, RevPAR increased by 7.4% in the third quarter, rising to 6.2% when excluding the World Cup. Luxury hotels saw a 12% RevPAR increase, while select-service hotels exceeded a 6% rise.
Capuano remarked that while luxury performance remains strong, it’s encouraging to see three consecutive quarters of robust RevPAR growth across other hotel categories. Leisure RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada grew by 9%, group RevPAR by 7%, and business transient RevPAR by 5%.
Global Results
Global RevPAR was up 6.5% for the quarter. In the Caribbean and Latin America, RevPAR grew more than 3%, “driven by strong luxury and leisure demand across the Caribbean, which offset continued softness in Mexico,” Capuano added.
Marriott raised its full-year global RevPAR guidance to 4.5% to 5%, up from a previous 3% to 3.5% range. The company reported third-quarter net income of $794 million, up 9% from $728 million a year earlier. The company’s adjusted EBITDA rose 12%, to $1.5 billion.